The double-edge of preemptive capture: an inverted sequencing of democratic backsliding in Peru
Summary: Both in traditional populist regimes and in the new-right regimes gaining ground across the region, democratic backsliding is generally understood as the result of institutional capture led by incumbent executives once in office. Peru's Fujimorismo, from the 2010s onwards and especially from 2021, inverts this sequence. We observe a Fujimorismo-led congressional bloc that, without holding the presidency, progressively eroded institutions. How can we understand this pattern of democratic backsliding and its consequences? This paper argues that this legislative-first pattern of capture, distinct from the executive aggrandisement seen in other new-right regimes, is best understood through the lens of multiple, sometimes conflicting goals that produced a double-edged inheritance for Keiko Fujimori's government.
We identify five logics operating simultaneously and at times conflicting: (1) An electoral-access logic, which sought to fragment the opposition, secure a majority in the newly restored Senate, and create conditions for a favourable ruling in the event of a contested election; (2) A capture-of-accountability logic, consisting of the progressive takeover of the courts, the prosecution, and the bodies whose independence would otherwise have constrained the Fujimorismo; (3) A self-entrenchment logic that raised the threshold for presidential removal and curbed the executive's own power to dissolve Congress; (4) A factional rent-seeking logic, in which individual legislators traded support in exchange for protecting their own rent-seeking interests; and finally (5) a hand-tying logic that consisted of measures originally designed to constrain a distrusted sitting president, Pedro Castillo above all, but that now constrain the Fujimorismo regime.
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Este encontro faz da série de seminários Democracia em Risco: Accountability em Disputa na América Latina, que reúne pesquisadores dedicados ao estudo do estado da democracia na América Latina, examinando as pressões que a ameaçam e as instituições encarregadas de responsabilizar o poder. Cada seminário se concentra em um país diferente ou em uma perspectiva comparada, combinando pesquisa empírica e reflexão teórica sobre o cenário político da região. A série promove o diálogo direto entre pesquisadores e profissionais que atuam na área, aliando investigação rigorosa a discussões abertas e debates qualificados. Em vez de buscar respostas definitivas, ela cria um espaço para testar ideias, questionar pressupostos e envolver um público mais amplo na reflexão sobre o futuro da democracia na região.
Os seminários fazem parte do projeto Accountability e a adaptação das elites na América Latina, financiada pela FAPESP e sediada no CEPESP (FGV - São Paulo).
Organizador: Manoel Gehrke [manoel.gehrke@fgv.br]
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Seminar Series: Democracy at Risk: Contested Accountability in Latin America
This seminar series brings together researchers working on the state of democracy in Latin America, examining the pressures that threaten it, and the institutions meant to hold power accountable. Each session focuses on a different country or comparative angle, combining empirical research with theoretical reflection on the region's political landscape. The series brings leading researchers into direct conversation on these questions, pairing rigorous investigation with open discussion and debate. Rather than settling on fixed answers, it creates a space to test ideas, challenge assumptions, and engage a wider public in thinking through the future of democracy in the region.
This series is part of a research initiative on democracy, elite behavior and accountability in Latin America, funded by FAPESP and hosted by CEPESP (FGV - São Paulo). (link para site do projeto). Convenor: Manoel Gehrke [manoel.gehrke@fgv.br]
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